CPI FORECAST
Food at home: USDA food price forecast
All food › Food at home
USDA ERS forecasts Food at home to change between 1.8% and 3% (midpoint 2.4%) in 2026.
USDA ERS forecasts Food at home to change between -5% and 9.2% (midpoint 1.8%) in 2027.
A forecast interval is a range. The midpoint is the centre of that range, not a promise about what will happen.
Forecast and history for Food at home
| ERS label | Value |
|---|---|
| Lower bound of forecast interval 2026 | 1.8% |
| Midpoint of forecast interval 2026 | 2.4% |
| Upper bound of forecast interval 2026 | 3% |
| Lower bound of forecast interval 2027 | -5% |
| Midpoint of forecast interval 2027 | 1.8% |
| Upper bound of forecast interval 2027 | 9.2% |
| Relative importance | 60.8% |
| Month-to-month July 2026 to August 2026 | 0% |
| Year-over-year August 2025 to August 2026 | 2.2% |
| Year-to-date avg. 2026 to avg. 2025 | 2.1% |
| Annual 2024 | 1.2% |
| Annual 2025 | 2.3% |
| 20-year historical average | 2.6% |
Track record: past forecasts compared with the final figure
For each past year that has a final annual figure in the data, this table shows the forecast ERS made in the first month available for that year and the final published value for the year. Both columns are read from the previously published estimates record.
| Year | First forecast available | Forecast (%) | Final (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | January 2003 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.2 |
| 2004 | July 2003 | 1.5 to 2.5 | 3.8 |
| 2005 | July 2004 | 3 to 4 | 1.9 |
| 2006 | July 2005 | 2 to 3 | 1.7 |
| 2007 | August 2006 | 2 to 3 | 4.2 |
| 2008 | July 2007 | 2.5 to 3.5 | 6.4 |
| 2009 | July 2008 | 4 to 5 | 0.5 |
| 2010 | July 2009 | 2.5 to 3.5 | 0.3 |
| 2011 | July 2010 | 2 to 3 | 4.8 |
| 2012 | July 2011 | 3 to 4 | 2.5 |
| 2013 | July 2012 | 3 to 4 | 0.9 |
| 2014 | July 2013 | 2.5 to 3.5 | 2.4 |
| 2015 | July 2014 | 2 to 3 | 1.2 |
| 2016 | July 2015 | 2 to 3 | -1.3 |
| 2017 | July 2016 | 1 to 2 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | July 2017 | 1 to 2 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | July 2018 | 1 to 2 | 0.9 |
| 2020 | July 2019 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 3.5 |
| 2021 | July 2020 | 1 to 2 | 3.5 |
| 2022 | July 2021 | 1.5 to 2.5 | 11.4 |
| 2023 | July 2022 | 2 to 3 | 5 |
| 2024 | July 2023 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Years shown: 2003 to 2024 (22 years in the record for this category).
Source records: changes-in-consumer-price-indexes-2024-through-2027, consumer-price-index-cpi-forecasts-previously-published-estimates, from the USDA Economic Research Service Food Price Outlook. Figures cover August 2026. Data fetched 2026-09-28.